5:30 AM, EDT, New York – The Iowa Electronic Markets–where folks get to buy and sell shares of political candidates to predict election outcomes–put Kerry (49%) over Bush (48%). (Current price quote) The IEM typically outperforms normal polls at making predictions. I check the IEM every morning, and though Bush and Kerry have been running neck and neck, this is the first time I’ve seen Kerry edge out Bush. A trend? Too early to tell. For more on the IEM see, this article in Wired